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Op-Ed

Editorial: Whose Head on the Pike?

Friday, September 24, 2010

Pike

So this is how the crisis is resolved: Trawler captain Zhan Qixiong will be released without charges after claims by the Japan Coast Guard that he had deliberately rammed their ships near the Senkaku Islands.

Vice-Prosecutor Toru Suzuki explained, "We have decided that further investigation while keeping the captain in custody would not be appropriate, considering the impact on the people of our country as well as Japan-China relations in the future."

While at one level Mr. Suzuki's view should be appreciated, at another it raises disturbing questions about the true state of the separation of powers in Japan. It would also seem to give the lie to the notion expressed by the Japanese government that this affair is a simple internal criminal matter that raises no territorial issues.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku has been forced to explicitly deny that any political interference occurred.

The release of the trawler captain came after a remarkable offensive by Beijing which was growing to a fierce level of intensity. After repeated diplomatic demarches and demands for the release of the captain, the Chinese government announced its intention to break off all high-level political contacts with Japan.

But the campaign did not end there. Beijing began to put a stop to some exchanges at the popular level, and pulled out of a major travel fair that began in Tokyo today. Bilateral tourism has been falling off sharply since the crisis began. Reports emerged yesterday that China had halted shipments of rare earth metals to Japan, although the accuracy of those reports has been contested.

Economics Minister Banri Kaieda stated earlier today that "brakes have been applied" on trade with China. "The Japanese economy's future performance seems to depend on whether the problem is solved quickly," Kaieda added.

Finally, four Japanese employees of the Fujita Corporation were detained in Hubei Province for allegedly entering and photographing a restricted military zone. However, it is not known if this last event is directly connected to the bilateral dispute.

It is easy to foresee that by releasing Mr. Zhan within such a context, the Kan administration is trading one set of difficulties for a different set. Beijing, too, is unlikely to profit much from its "win" in this affair.

Beginning with the Japanese scene, this event is guaranteed to fuel the rage of the right, which will become even more intense in denouncing the "treason" of the DPJ.

Moreover, these angry sentiments are unlikely to be confined to the usual suspects, because many ordinary Japanese too will be left with a sour taste in their mouths over the government's handling of this matter. Many will feel that releasing the captain and citing the future of "Japan-China relations" smacks of pathetic weakness.

It certainly doesn't help that Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara have been overseas at this critical juncture, and so are unavailable to provide leadership or any convincing public explanations.

It would not be surprising if the next public opinion polls show a significant drop in support for the cabinet.

In fairness, the DPJ inherited a political posture from their predecessors which argued that "no territorial issues exist" in regard to the Senkaku Islands. With this as their starting point, Tokyo was poorly prepared to respond to Chinese (and Taiwanese) demands.

In hindsight, the government should have been more aware of the stakes before they adopted their initial tough line on arresting the trawler captain in the first place. For their lack of insight and total absence of a strategy, it is difficult to give the Japanese government high marks in this affair.

Beijing, however, also comes out of this affair badly. They too have shown great weakness, but in a different manifestation.

Beijing's weakness is that they gave themselves over to a vociferous form of narrow-minded nationalism which it appears they are less and less able to control. Although Japan was sufficiently impressed by the ferocity of the Chinese campaign to give up the prosecution of Mr. Zhan, Beijing has made an awful spectacle of itself in recent days; acting more like a spoiled child denied its toys than as a responsible government.

The Chinese "victory" may briefly appease its own nationalists, but by almost every other measurement this affair will prove to be a strategic loss. Many Japanese will harden their attitudes toward China. Not only Japan, but most of China's neighbors will raise their eyebrows at Beijing's recent conduct, and this will not redound to their strategic benefit.

Indeed, surveying the political landscape at the immediate conclusion of this affair, it seems the only winners will be rightwing nationalists in Japan, ideological chauvinists in China, and the US Pentagon, which can be expected to utilize the new atmosphere to dampen allied resistance to its regional plans.

PanOrient News